Handicapping Your Odds Of Getting Into A Great Business School

This time our MBA handicapping series goes after some provocative targets: HBSGuru.com founder Sandy Kreisberg tells a Stanford wanna-be with some powerful touch points how she could write her all-important ‘What Matters Most’ essay. He also tells a woman with a 780 GMAT why Harvard Business School doesn’t overly care about her leadership profile.

And then there are these fascinating profiles of prospective applicants who want to get into one of the world’s best business schools:

After spending two years at a bulge bracket investment bank in New York, this 23-year-old female professional is heading to the West Coast to work for a private equity shop. With a 720 GMAT and a 3.8 grade point average from a top liberal arts college, she wants an MBA to help her eventually move into a leadership role at her PE firm.

He can boast one of the more unusual extracurricular activities: Dancing for 46 hours straight in a charity marathon to raise money for pediatric cancer. This 25-year-old Penn State grad has worked for three years in finance and corporate strategy for a healthcare concern. He’s hoping an MBA will help him climb the corporate ladder more quickly.

He’s a 29-year-old midwesterner who now works at Coca-Cola in market research. After scoring a 650 on a GMAT practice test, he wants to get a graduate degree in business and use it to transition to job outside the U.S., either with his current employer or a top three global consulting firm.

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sandy is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

And if you just have a short question, he is happy to answer that, too. So just post it in the comment section below.

Sandy’s candid analysis:

Mr. Dance Marathon

710 GMAT
3.7 GPA
Undergraduate degree from Penn State
Work experience includes three years in finance and corporate strategy for a healthcare/biotech company
Extracurricular involvement includes participating in a 46-hour dance marathon for pediatric cancer charity (no sitting and no sleeping; captain of the cross country team; volunteer for the national running club; leads employee running group
Goal: To return to current company or a similar role elsewhere in corporate strategy
25-year-old male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 10%
Wharton: 30% to 35%
Dartmouth: 40% to 50%
Virginia: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: What we got here is a lot of silver, a little bit of gold. I don’t think you are getting into Harvard Business School or Stanford. In God’s eyes, what we have here is a likable, athletic, marathon dancer, philanthropist, and all around nice guy. What we don’t have is anything super special. We don’t have enough prestige in either the GPA, or the GMAT, or the prestige company to get one into HBS or Stanford.

Saying that you want to return to the same company requires that is not a good idea. That is Executive MBA stuff, for people who work for mid-level, non-brand companies who just want to do better at their own firms. Harvard, Stanford and Wharton doesn’t want guys like that for their MBA programs. I would advise this guy to say that he likes the function, he likes what he is doing, and he wants to be an impactful and innovative leader in that industry. Then, he should Google the leading company in that industry and say he wants to lead that company.

At Wharton, it’s a numbers game and there are going to be athletic guys just like him with better numbers. For him, Dartmouth and Darden are gold. It’s not a long reach. He could get into Dartmouth and he sure seems himself. And this guy has UVA written all over him.

Ms. Ideal Stanford Essay Writer

720 GMAT
3.8 GPA
Undergraduate degree in economics and philosophy from a top liberal arts school (think Amherst, Williams, Pomona)
Work experience includes two years at a bulge bracket investment bank in New York (think Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs or JPMorgan); about to start work for a private equity firm on the West Coast focused on technology
Extracurricular involvement includes four years as president of a Muslim student group, four years on rowing club crew; four years on student senate; research assistant in the political science department; working with autistic children as a volunteer (autism has been integral in my life since my brother was diagnosed 10 years ago)
Long-term goal: Move into leadership at current private equity firm (think Sequoia, Silver Lake, etc.)
“Do you think I should retake GMAT to get 750+? I took the test in my senior year without much preparation, so I think I can raise it 30-40 points with studying”
23-year-old female

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 50%+
Stanford: 40% (if you can execute as per below, higher)
Wharton: 50%+
Dartmouth: 50%+
Northwestern: 50%+
Chicago: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Kids like you get admitted to and dinged at HBS and Stanford depending on execution, recommendations, the right touch at Stanford, not screwing up the HBS interview, and luck. You should get in to Wharton, Tuck, Kellogg and Booth if you can convince them you want to come.

This is strong across the board: A 3.8 at Williams-type college, 720 GMAT, Bulge Bracket blah, blah followed by technology PE and what seems like lots of extras. It also appears you are a Muslim woman, with extras to support it (president of the club), and have real commitment to autism via the fact that your brother was diagnosed with the condition 10 years ago and “4 years working with Autistic children after school in the local area.”

Let’s talk about Stanford, since you are a good test case for what they are looking for.

First, you might get into Stanford on your profile alone, and be one of the many people Bolton says gets in despite their essays. This is true: MANY people do get into Stanford based on prestige jobs with feeder firms (especially ultra-PE firms like TPG, KKR, Blackstone), and a good deal of getting a free pass, as it were, into Stanford will depend on if your PE firm is on their secret list. I am not sure of the number of Muslim female applicants to Stanford from TPG, KKR, Blackstone in recorded history, but it would not surprise me if the admit rate of that cohort is over 75%. It would not surprise me, in fact, if the admit rate for that cohort were over 90%. Well, that is just FYI for our readers. You said you were going to a West Coast ‘tech’ PE firm, so you may have to work this a bit but you have a lot to work with.

In fact, your basic facts, could provide a useful template for a Platonic Stanford essay, although I realize what I am about to say may not be true in your case, I am just using the big pieces of your story to demonstrate what Stanford really looks for in their “What Matters Most” essay, although they would deny it 1000 times.

What really pays off on the main Stanford essay is life stories about difference, victimization, struggle, compassion, and having IMPACT based on that. In your case, that could mean stressing stories about being a female, a Muslim, a caretaker for an autistic brother and a teacher of other autistic children. I don’t mean to be glib about these important issues. I am just trying to illustrate, below, what Stanford is looking for in that essay because it is unclear on their website and by the preachy and sanctimonious and unhelpful so-called help offered by the director of admissions.

What they are looking for, from you and everyone else, is a story that talks about the central “identity politic” facts of your life (class, race, gender, religion, disability, etc.) and presents them in a way that is humble, concise, and full of lessons and impact. Not everyone can do that, but you have the basic building blocks.

I am not suggesting you do this, but on your facts, the below would be a great Stanford essay: You need to connect the key elements of autism (especially how it impacts your brother and particularly autism’s social isolation, misinterpreted communication cues, and restricted behavior patterns) to triggers in YOUR awareness and experiences of how prejudice works in general. It is clearly apparent and well known that autism is a trigger for prejudice/ostracism against the victim of autism–but the Stanford leap is to connect this to your own awareness that that is how prejudice works in your own experiences, as a woman, Muslim, etc. and connect that awareness to your ability to help the other autism kids you work with (impact!).

Thus, What matters to me is learning from autism, learning both how it affected my brother, and how helping my brother allowed me to confront certain hard truths about myself– and how those lessons allowed me to impact others afflicted with the disorder.

A great Stanford essay does not need to annonce its ‘answer’ in the first sentence, but on these facts it could. And let me assure you, as someone who has read thousands of these essays, the above is a real solid start, and you would have my attention. A great essay would then execute on these next three parts.

Part One: Autism is exhausting (tell personal stories and background). Over the years I was a caretaker for my brother, I noticed how the disease cruelly separated him from society and how others, even people who were well meaning, walked on eggshells when near him. (Give some examples).

Part Two: One of the more surprising lessons, however, was how being immersed in my brother’s world of isolation and estrangement made me sensitive to the more subtle ways I was being treated as “the other” by the fact of my being a Muslim woman in a male high-powered finance environment. Give examples. How certain remarks, glances, even attempts to help were triggers for what you had seen working with your brother. This section could also include examples of any prejudice you have ever felt, as a woman, an outsider, and an advocate.

Part Three: The real challenge for me moving forward is to integrate these lessons to be a more impactful guide and mentor to the autistic victims I work with as part of the X Organization. Say how some of your kids exhibit conducts 1, 2, and 3, and how you are better able to understand them from contemplating the ways people were treating both you and your brother. That struggle has made you a more competent mentor to the kids you work with, you understand them more and you have a deeper understanding of yourself, of your own limits, the ways you have grown, your ability to help others.

This template has a million variants but you get the idea.That is what Stanford is looking for– a story based on your personal identity politics leading to awareness which is then put to good use.

If you are reading this and saying, “Well, thanks for nothing Sandy, I don’t have too many stories like that because I am not a Muslim woman with an autistic brother . . .” Well, fair enough, but it is possible to get into Stanford without stories like that, but that is the ideal. Just so you know. I’ve worked with white, Jewish guys from Long Island (like me!) who have been admitted to Stanford and do not have stories like that. But they were able to inhabit that mindset of personal growth and awareness, social concern, and actually getting some good things accomplished. They did not talk about how big the deals were that they worked on and how hard they worked on them.

If you are saying, “Hey Sandy, you have no idea what you are talking about . . .I’ve got friends at Stanford who did nothing of the kind . . .” Well, that may be true, but your friends could 1. Be the large number of BFFs (Best Friends of Bolton) who get admitted despite their essays, 2. could be borderline cases who do not write great essays but capture just enough identidy politics mojo to get in (that happens a lot).

For HBS, you could tell a similar story, interspersed with some work BS, and say how those experiences led to your interest in the same goal blah, blah you cooked up for Stanford’s other essay. That could be their one essay in about 1000 words. As to retaking the GMAT with a 720, probably not. But I do want to tack on here a Q and A from last week, which is important reading because GMAT scores are rising, many schools are under tacit orders to get them up to boost rankings, and most adcoms LIE about this:

Question: Does a 710 GMAT warrant a retake for schools like Kellogg, Tuck, etc? It is above a 700, but a hair below average, kind of in the twilight zone of scores. I have been told it is not worth retaking unless I can get a 740– is that true?

No one knows, not even adcoms (who lie about it anyway). This is a developing and depressing story with no end in sight. I would retake a 710 if Q was low (below 70%) and you did not have a quant background. I would also retake the test if the rest of your application was similarly marginal, AND I thought I could do better. The difference between a 710 and a 730 could be life or death in close cases. No one likes to make decisions, and given two nearly identical kids, who would you take? Both Kellogg and Tuck are less obsessed about GMAT scores than Wharton, MIT, Columbia, and Stanford. Still, as they say, rich or poor it is best to marry someone with money.

Mr. Coca Cola

650 GMAT (practice test)
3.5 GPA (3.8 over the last two years)
Undergraduate degree in political science and psychology from Ohio State in 2011
Conducted honors research on Chinese oil market
Fluent in Spanish and basic German
Work experience includes two years a German faucet company (akin to Koehler or Moen) in marketing and pricing in Germany and in Cyprus; was laid off from job in Cyprus due to the widely publicized financial collapse of the island; currently work at Coca-Cola Co. headquarters in Atlanta doing market research for brand managers
Extracurricular involvement as an intern for a U.S. Senator, two years on an LDS mission in Peru; served as the chief spiritual leader for 90 people while living in Cyprus in a position similar to being a part-time priest, rabbi, pastor; also doing part-time market research for the non-profit branch of Coke finding locations for water filtration systems offering clean water
Goal: To continue working with Coca Cola abroad or to join Bain, McKinsey or BCG abroad
29-year-old white male midwesterner

Odds of Success:

(with 700+ GMAT)
Yale: 30%
Northwestern: 40%+
INSEAD: 50%+
Duke: 40%+
Brigham Young: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Hmmm, Ohio State, 3.5; jobs w. German faucet major and Coke; 29 year old male, GMAT=??? LDS mission, lots of powerful extras, mostly LDS related.

Lots to like, including Coke, which is real old school, but so are the places you are applying to. And after a while adcoms get tired of reading applications from app inventors and other “disruptors.” The 3.5 is on the bubble, so GMAT near or above 700 could be important to you.

Also, given your smart goal of working for consulting shops like M/B/B, well, those places actually look at GMATs, so it might be worth trying for a 710 or so, even if it means taking it several times.

]Sorry to be a pain on this topic, but we are witnessing a very strange phenomenon on Planet B-School: as GMAT scores rise dramatically, people (adcoms and other consultants) are rushing to discount their importance. Huh, then how come they are rising? Just a question.

The line up of schools you suggest: Yale, Kellogg, INSEAD, Duke, BYU are all possible. I would caution anyone interested in returning to the U.S. about INSEAD. That can happen, but it is just hard. I think you would get in. They like Americans, have a comparatively high acceptance rate of 32%, and you have strong Euro experience as well, so it may make sense for you. If you are not planning on working in Europe after B-school, well, take a real close look at where INSEAD places people (happy to be tweaked about this, if anyone has the data).

One plus for you is that your story reads as a tight package: You are the Coke/LDS/brand management/McKinsey type from the Midwest,and I would both play into that while noting, as they say on the infomercials, “but there is more!” Your work in Washington, important mission work for LDS, and two years working in Cyrpus.

As to the schools you target:

Yale may want better stats. They are on a magazine rankings jihad.Kellogg goes for guys like you. Coke/brand management is deep in their DNA.

Duke runs older and likes solid dudes like you (and Coke, too, is a peer Southern institution in their world).

BYU is just not that hard, and they might welcome an LDS non-alum!!!

If you get an 80/80 GMAT there is a chance you could get into HBS, with perfect execution, and some hankering on their adcom’s part for a Coke type. HBS features itself as the “Coke” of business schools, certainly in terms of age, size, dominance and #1-dom, although I’d say just in terms of branding, HBS has done better over the past 10 years than Coke. Worth a Hail Mary there. They take a certain number of Coke/Pepsi types a year — just to add some fizz to the class.

Coke is a really strong part of your application. You don’t have to say you are going back, but you should say you are interested in brand management, especially for global products, which could help you key into your global and brand management background.

Ms. Consultant

780 GMAT
3.5 GPA
Undergraduate degree in finance from a top two university in China
Work experience includes 2 years of management consulting (non MBB); summer investment banking analyst at a bulge bracket Chinese joint venture
Extracurricular activities include serving on the board of a school club, leading and organizing a mid-size competition across 10 universities; volunteered as a mentor for impoverished students; co-organized a company annual dinner (“Does it count?) I think EA is my weak point”
Short-term goal: Consulting at McKinsey, Bain or BCG or buy side
Long-term goal: Leadership in a corporate/buy side in consumer/retail sector
24-year-old Chinese female

Odds of Success:

Wharton: 50%+
Columbia: 50%+
Harvard: 30%
Stanford: 10% to 20%

Sandy’s Analysis: A 780 GMAT and no arrest record for anything shameful (normal crimes OK) with serviceable grades, which you got, and serviceable work experience, which you also got, is pretty much a free pass at schools you are targeting, except H and S. (Although it is a good start there, too.)

I’d like to see a list of the kids Wharton or Columbia turned down last year with a 780, excluding the ones they put on the wait list because they thought they would go to HBS. That very short list would be a pretty ugly sight of essay screwballs, interviews barfers, deeply annoying people, and most substantially, my guess, non-English speakers who had someone else take their GMAT. Also in your favor is that working for a non-MBB consulting firm OUTSIDE of the U.S. (if that is what you did), is considered near elite since those jobs are just harder to get abroad, and considered prestige positions.

Your lack of extra activities will not keep you out of target schools. The emphasis on leadership and volunteering is something of an outdated myth these days. Schools do not ask about it so much, and even HBS has seemed to drop its leadership mantra for a new focus on stats and how you fit in with the new world which is being born.

You read it here first.

Leadership and extracurriculars may still count, but they do not count as much as they used to.

Cue the adcom mumblecore choir!

The world has become too complex, too cynical and too rushed for that. How do I know? 1. From recent results, 2. From the fact that such concerns have almost dropped off the application. The days when HBS asked an essay set like this, which demanded you have a broad mix of work and extra and club experiences, ARE OVER.

1. What would you like the MBA Admissions Board to know about your undergraduate academic experience? (400-word limit)

2. What are your three most substantial accomplishments and why do you view them as such? (600-word limit)

3. Discuss a defining experience in your leadership development. How did this experience highlight your strengths and weaknesses as a leader? (400-word limit)

4. In your career, you will have to deal with many ethical issues. What are likely to be the most challenging and what is your plan for developing the competencies you will need to handle these issues effectively? (400-word limit)

5. What is your career vision and why is this choice meaningful to you? (400-word limit)

6. What other information do you believe would be helpful to the Board in understanding you better and in considering your application? (400-word limit)

Folks, the above is a real HBS essay set, six questions, from not so long ago (class entering in 2007) and older apps had eight questions. To answer that essay set, you needed more than some interesting work experiences. That is no longer the case.

Leadership, both in business school and in reality, has become “women’s work.” The swaggering dicks and dickheads like Steve Jobs et al found the companies and then hire the girlie-girls (of any gender) to “run” them, which means they make sure no one’s feelings get hurt.

Cue the adcom mumblecore choir to rebut this. And then have them explain why they no longer ask about it.

End of news flash, back to this poster, who said “volunteered as a mentor of some impoverished students; co-organized company annual dinner (does it count?).” That could certainly be enough. What will count at HBS is what they think of your non-MBB consulting company, what they think of recs, not screwing up your interview, and a little bit, how you put it all together. You have, on the facts presented, a natural essay about being an impactful consultant. Just give examples of that-say what you liked abouut a couple of engagements, dope out some story about helping companies in China based on your set of skills and experiences, and you could be in the HBS running.

Stanford is different: You do not have a natural, powerful essay story, like the Muslim woman with the autistic brother, but you also did not tell us as much, so maybe you do. Anyway, read my analysis about how to write a great Stanford essay and see what you can come up with. Save the impactful consulting story for Essay 2. Bolton likes to brag about rejecting kids with 780 and 800 GMATs. I never fully believed him. Those rejects must have been a Terrorist Watch List of some kind. What may count more at Stanford is what they think of your consulting company and if it is on the Stanford BFF list. (Bolton Friend Forever).

You got a lot to like, I would apply to both HBS and Stanford.

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

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