Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds

After a two-year stint with a middle-tier bulge bracket bank, this 25-year-old professional works for a private equity fund in the real estate space. With an impressive 740 GMAT and a double major from Duke University, he now hopes to go back to school for an MBA to enhance his career prospects.

He wants to break out of a technical job for a large defense contractor on the West Coast and move into a strategy role. With a 750 GMAT and both undergraduate and master’s degrees in electrical engineering with 3.6+ GPAs, this 28-year-old white male expects to use the MBA to land a job with McKinsey, Bain or BCG.

You would be hard pressed to find a more non-traditional candidate. With a humanities degree from one of the top-tier Ivies, he’s now in graduate school pursuing a PhD in humanities. Besides English, he knows five languages and has won several distinctions in his field, including study abroad scholarships to China and Western Europe. But now this young would-be academic wants to learn the basics of finance and marketing to have a shot at a dream job: Working for Disney.

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

What these applicants share in common is the goal to get into one of the world’s best business schools. Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

Mr. Google

710 GMAT
3.3 GPA
Undergraduate degree from a Little Ivy (think Williams/Amherst/Wesleyan)
Work experience includes two years in an analytics and data reporting role at Google Adwords and two years at Teach for America before Google
Extracurricular involvement on both the baseball and golf teams in college
Goal: To transition into a global consulting firm as a consultant

Odds of Success:

MIT: 50%+
Northwestern: 50%+
Chicago: 50%+
Michigan: 60%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Let’s start with the very ltitle bad news. A 3.3 GPA and a 710 GMAT. The real question this guy should be asking is whether he can get into Harvard or Stanford with those statistics?

I think you can, if you work at Google Adwords. These schools have become so influenced and dominated by the Google or Apple effect, whatever you want to call it. This guy has a technial job at the filet mignon part of Google, and if you have a serious job like that at Google or Apple, you are a contender. You are in the belly of the beast at Google in Adwords analytics and you have Teach for America on your resume and you even play golf.

Bottom line: Your target school list makes me think you are aiming too low. They are all great schools but you should shoot higher. Your odds at Harvard are between 40% and 50%. Stanford may cough at the low stats, but I don’t think so. Stanford takes a lot of people from Google and Apple and they take them from HR just to gain access. With just a serviceable Stanford presentation, you’ll get a really close look from the school, particulary if you have friends at Google who could write recommendations for you. We would call that FOD, Friends of Derrick.

You’re going to get in all the places you targeted. All you need is servicable execution.

Fella, apply to Harvard and Stanford, grow a pair of two new schools to apply to!

Mr. Telecom

740 GMAT (42V, 49Q)
“Concerned about quant, thinking about redoing as this was usually my strong suit; nerves/time management was an issue”
3.4 GPA
Undergraduate degree in business from a Canadian university
“Last two years had a 4.0 GPA. First two years I had two deaths in my immediate family which explains the low GPA in my first years in university)
Work experience as a data analyst at a Canadian telecom company for the past two years; also developed two apps
Extracurricular involvement as a hospital volunteer, doing outreach work with at-risk youth; teach science to underpresented youth; started three clubs at university; research assistant for two professors in the psych department; entrepreneurial award in university for past experiences in high school
Goal: To transition into IT management consulting

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 10%
Wharton: 30%

Sandy’s Analysis: Long story short, there’s nothing super special driving you into Stanford. You have silver+ but not gold story and stats, with stats, in fact being on the low-ish side. But the real issue is so-so (and maybe less, maybe just so) job which you characterize as “data analyst 2 years at telecom within Canada.”

Telcom can be OK, if you were in some rotational leader position, but “data analyst” seems like a real unselective gig which is real important at the schools you’re targeting. I’d change my mind if you told me one kid a year from that job gets into Stanford (or even one kid every other year).

Some brief notes on your story:

1. “approx 3.4 gpa (canadian university in business) (last 2 years had 4.0 gpa, first 2 years i had 2 deaths in immediate family which explained the low gpa in the first years in uni)”

Your explanation sure makes sense to me, but super selective schools don’t care so much when many applicants present a 3.7-4.0 and there is nothing to blink at. A 3.4 GPA at Stanford (where the latest average for the incoming class is 3.75) is mostly for special cases, URMs, faculty kids, rich kids, and not what seems to be a white boy in IT.

2. “extensive volunteering at hospital, outreach/at risk youth, teach science to under represented youth, started 3 clubs at uni (1 now has become part of the university health service umbrella), and various other involvements on campus.”

Hmmmm, better extra-curric than the average IT white guy (I assume you are white) but probably not a field goal UNLESS you have a leadership position and strong, new results versus just doing lots of stuff in a competent and helpful way. The dirty little secret about extras is that to make a difference (e.g. kick you up a notch) you really need some leadership, impact, initiative gig, often overseas and helping victims. Your stuff is all solid and local. I’m impressed, but it seems driven by existing gigs and not fueled by any passion. To the extent you can rebut this in the application, that will help.

“Started 3 clubs at uni (1 now has become part of the university health service umbrella) . . . .” Getting warmer and it might depend.

3. “Developed 2 apps . . . .”

That’s all? My 6-year-old cousin has nine. Including one that just spits at you and cracks up all his friends. Unless there’s more, e.g., they are making money, you sold to Google for millions, voted Best Whatever by App Magazine, this is not really impactful.

4. “Looking to transition into IT/management consulting . . . .” Sure, makes sense, but Stanford already has many minorities and super stars who were doing that before they enrolled . . . why should they admit you?

As to HBS, it’s pretty much the same analysis, but if you optimize your story and get real good recs, you may sneak in. Outcome could depend a bit on size and quality of the Canadian IT/telcom/consulting cohort. You may be a rare case where a winning essay illustrating extras and separating you from the usual IT drones could actually make a difference. You really need to optimize recs as well.

Wharton is on the bubble. You are superficially not their type and no school really needs another IT guy. But amid all my carping, this is a solid profile (just not glam enough for S and H). You gotta convince them that you are serious about Wharton and not just using them as an H/S backstop.

Attend forums, visit, get on their lists and sound very knowing about the school and what it can do for you. Really optimize your extras in their Second Essay (What else you wanna tell us?) and develop their importance to you. Say one goal of yours is using IT and tech to provide good jobs for transitioning populations in Canada, and explain how working with those groups in your extras was an education in the challenges and potential of doing that. Some aspect of that might also be a good theme in Stanford’s core essay, What Matters Most To You?

Retake the 740 GMAT? Hmmmm, usually not but . . . . Your quant score is fine and no one has any doubts about your Q abilities. If you did retake and got a 760, as much as I hate to say it, that could move the needle a bit at Wharton, but probably not at HBS or Stanford. A 780 and you could be real close to IN at Wharton (assuming serviceable execution on the app and no interview gaffes). I do not think that even a 780 would blow open the doors at H or S on these facts, and I would be surprised if it did . . . but not totally flabbergasted.

The real missing piece of this analysis is what schools think of your company and your job.
The same facts for some guy in an elite rotational leadership program at Comcast and the outcomes could be very different.

Mr. Defense

GMAT: 750 GMAT (41V, 50Q, 8IR)
3.66 GPA
Undergraduate degree in electrical engineering from a private school on the east coast (think RPI, RIT or WPI)
3.61 GPA
Master’s degree from UCLA in electrical engineering (online while working)
Work experience includes three years at a small defense contractor on the east coast and then a move to Los Angeles for a job in a technical role at a large defense contractor (Lockheed/Raytheon/Northrop Grumman) where I work on designing and testing satellites.
“Initially I was in a technical job (designing radar algorithms) but it transitioned into a more business development role where I worked with customers and tried to sell them our products/solutions. A lot of face-to-face meetings with customers (domestic and international) and helped write proposals for large $100M+ programs.”
Goal: To transition to consulting (M/B/B) and eventually return to a technology company in management
“I was nervous that I wasn’t using my engineering degree and that is why I took a more technical role, but now I realize I enjoy the strategy and business side more than the engineering.”
Extracurricular involvement as the captain of intramural sports teams, teaching assistant in college.
28-year-old white male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
MIT: 40%+
Northwestern: 50%+
Yale: 40%+
UCLA: 50%+
Columbia: 40%+
Wharton: 30% to 40%

Sandy’s Analysis: Solid story, solid stats, and guys like you from big defense contractors often get admitted to your target schools, including MIT and HBS. The one wrinkle here is that you went from what seems like a very robust and interesting business development suite of roles BACK into a purely technical role at a big defense company. Most people start out in a tech role and branch out into sales, product development, etc.

What difference that is going to make is hard to say but you probably would do best by framing your applications to account for that –e.g. by saying in your Introduce Yourself essay at HBS, “Some of this seems reverse chrono but it’s the path I walked and let me tell you why.” Then just tell your story and try to explain transition from job 1 to job 2 as best you can. At other schools, where the application questions are not as flexible, some variant of that would be helpful, even it means not keeping within the straight lines of the question prompt.

Adcoms are more understanding than you may think, and open to some travel in the breakdown lane, as it were, of the essay highway. Just don’t get up on the grassy median strip.

This is going to be a coin flip at HBS just based on the fact that you are real solid but not glowing, e.g. this could be silver+ but maybe not gold based on age, odd story, and especially what they think of your current job and role and recs. In your case current job description and recs will count more than usual because you need to show them that your new job was not some compromise to get to the West Coast and spin your wheels while applying (even if that is the truth).

Soooooo, you need to make it sound selective and a good way to get tech chops at a major company before transitioning into MBA and management.

“My goal is to transition to consulting (M/B/B) and then eventually return to a technology company in management.” That is fine.

Some of your HBS outcome may be based on this year’s cohort of Big Defense tech guys, an evergreen category fer sure, but one that waxes and wanes with the economy and some random factors. I am not sure where we are now in terms of applicants being pushed into MBA applications because of defense spending, but if there are a higher number of guys with Ivy/near-Ivy (MIT, Caltech, Stanford) undergrad educations, high GPAs and 750+ GMATs, with classy rotational leadership gigs at major defense contractors, well, those guys are in a line ahead of you.

Same is true at MIT, but they run older, respect your straight tech work more, and will value the 750 GMAT a lot. So chances there are better.

“Kellogg, Yale, and UCLA (potentially Columbia and Wharton)”

Man, those places should happen, if you can convince them you are serious. Once you get a shorter list, it might make sense to visit and wag your tail, meet people, and try to kick open some angle or at best sound really, really informed of their assets, culture, and current student body. At those schools as well you really need to sound convincing about wanting to be a consultant. That is something they can understand.

As often noted, Columbia is first come, first looked at, and it is getting late in the season over there. If you are serious about Columbia, get app in ASAP. For the others, you just need to meet Round 2 deadline. [Someone correct me if this is not the case.]

Mr. Private Equity

740 GMAT (50Q 41V)
3.4 GPA
Undergraduate degree from Duke University with a double major in mathematics and economics
Work experience includes two years as an invesmtnet banking analyst at a middle-tier bulge bracket bank (Deutsche Bank/Citi/UBS/Credit Suisse); then worked for two years at a middle-tier real estate private equity fund
Extracurricular involvement as a mentor and tutor for underprivileged city youth for two years
“Conversationally proficient in Spanish (not sure what that is worth)”
Goal: To work at a global real estate private equity firm
25-year-old white male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 10%
Wharton: 30% to 40%
Columbia: 30% to 40%
Northwestern: 40%+
Chicago: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Well, I like you and my guess is, your dreams about landing at a “global real estate private equity firm” will come true in some form, given your strong banking and PE background. But my guess is that this is not a Stanford or HBS profile, unless your “middle-tier real estate private equity fund” is known to them and has a history of sending one applicant a year or so to those schools.

This was the revelation last year when we did our Guess Who HBS Just Dinged story and analyzed a lot of dings from high performers–one strong pattern was dings from middle market PE firms. I have since refined that result to exclude middle market firms with strong connections to HBS and Stanford, of which there are several, but if yours is not one, I ain’t seeing this happen, given solid silver but no gold profile.

“Northwestern, Booth, Wharton and Columbia?”

Sure, they all both take and ding guys like you depending on execution, recs, story and luck. I don’t usually say this, but you are on the bubble at those places. If writing applications is not your thing, you might think about getting help.

Your outcome at those places may turn on you really sounding gung-ho and fluent in their BS-mantras while also appearing just one level more interesting-winning-attractive than however interesting-winning-attractive you really are.

Mr. Humanities

700+ GMAT (projected but not yet taken)
3.49 GPA
Undergraduate degree in humanities from H/Y/P
“Have been in graduate school ever since, and currently pursuing a humanities PhD at UC Berkeley”
Work experience includes “lots of teaching experience that includes developing my own curricula, as well as experience organizing and leading collaborative arts projects outside the university (including some with a social justice dimension)
“Have garnered several distinctions in my field, and have won study abroad scholarships to China (one year) and Western Europe (one year, Fulbright)
Know five languages beyond English
Goal: To learn basics of finance and marketing to start a career in the media industry (ultimate goal to do corporate strategy at a large media company like Disney)
“ Essentially, I’m looking to influence the mental diet of people worldwide, which is possible through the values I’ve cultivated in the humanities”
“Is there a particular way I should craft my story to make it as compelling as possible for the adcom? Are there particular B-schools I should be looking at?”

Odds of Success: (assuming 700+ GMAT)

Northwestern: 25%
Dartmouth: 20%
Cornell: 30% to 40%
Duke: 30%
Yale: 20%

Sandy’s Analysis: Suggestion: Enroll in HBX Core, and see below.

Grrrrrr, this could be hard. What we got here is the DNA of a M/B/B consultant. If you dropped out of grad school two years ago and gotten some gig at McKinsey, you’d be in way better shape right now in terms of admissions.

Dealing with the facts at hand, your GMAT (or GRE if that is easier for you) will be important. You are also the classic case of someone who could gain value from HBX Core both as a way to sell B-schools on your bona fides and your ability to swallow crap and spit it back, and as a test for whether, in fact, you can do that, or want to. You may have a rosy idea of what an MBA education is like, given that you feel the need to bolt from a Liberal Arts Ph.D.

“- Aiming to learn basics of finance and marketing to start a career in the media industry (ultimate goal to do corporate strategy at a large media company like Disney) — essentially, I’m looking to influence the mental diet of people worldwide, which is possible through the values I’ve cultivated in the humanities.”

Couple of things. Corporate Strategy at Disney is like the dream job of many, many people, who have clawed their way through years of stats, marketing, and gigs at consulting firms before attending H/S/W and once more clawing past many others with equal qualifications to get that job. You saying it in some naive way is a signal that you are a bit out of it, a view corroborated by your ultimate goal, to “influence the mental diet of people worldwide, which is possible through the values I’ve cultivated in the humanities.”

Pal, I like you, and I am Ph.D drop out myself, so I feel your . . .whatever you are feeling.

You need to reboot your humanities approach to things and sound more in tune with the smart and often boring and near illiterate folks who set the culture in the business world.

My tuff-love advice:

1. Take HBX Core

2. Say you want to be a consultant not a corporate strategist at Disney

3. If you are serious, you need to get a real solid GMAT/GRE even it takes 2,3 times.

You may stand a chance at Kellogg, which goes a bit for humanists, and schools ranked 4 through 12 by Poets&Quants.

You might be able to bring in your six languages as part of a story that sees you as international marketing consultant, etc. Someone who knows global languages and cultures.

Keep your dream of working for Disney alive but international marketing may be a better way to present yourself to B-schools.

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

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