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Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds

October 1, 2016, 8:00 am
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After a year as an operations analyst for a major New York bank, she went west and has worked for nearly four years in Silicon Valley for a major social media player in supply chain operations. This 26-year-old white female boasts super stats: a 760 GMAT and a 3.89 grade point average from a top 40 private university. She hopes to get an MBA to move into an strategic planning role at an early stage tech company.

After earning an undergraduate degree in philosophy and economics at a top 25 university, he became a reporter at the Financial Times and ultimately moved into a senior management role at a financial news startup that serves the investment banking community. With a 720 GMAT and a 3.75 GPA, this young 20-something professional now wants an MBA to transition into i-banker job.

After a two-year stint as a counter terrorist intelligence analyst for the Defense Department, this 27-year-old African-American woman joined an experiential nonprofit that largely works with underserved youth and veterans. As the development and corporate relations manager in a large regional office, she hopes to go to business school to transition into a corporate social responsibility role at a for-profit or hybrid company. She has a 690 GMAT and a 3.62 GPA from Duke University where she majored in history and political science.

All three of three of these candidates and several more want to get through the door of a highly selective MBA program at one of the world’s very best business schools. Do they have a chance?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

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Clik here to view. Awesome news man reading a newspaper

Mr. Muckraker

 

  • 720 GMAT (43Q/47V)
  • 3.75 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree from a top 25 university with a double major in economics and philosophy (As in almost all statistics, econonics and math classes)
  • Work Experience includes a year as a reporter at the Financial Times, working on a Pearson Venture fund-backed financial news service; one year as an editor at an energy commodity benchmarking/forecasting company; currently in a senior management role at a financial news start up that serves the investment banking community
  • Extracurricular involvement includes four years of varsity tennis; program director at a nonprofit that uses tennis as a vehicle for empowerment for kids with autism; member of the development committee at another nonprofit that sponsors tennis clinics in underserved neighborhoods
  • Goal: To put his understanding of the energy industry to use at a power and utilities group at an investment bank; eventually would like to join an infrastructure investment firm

Odds of Success:

Columbia: 40% (Early Decision)
Wharton: 30%
MIT: 25%
Yale: 40%+
NYU: 50%
Georgetown: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: What we have here is a very attractive, Ivy League kind of literate guy who did well. You have solid basics, with a 3.75 GPA and a 720 GMAT. He also say she has a lot of extras around tennis. You are a tennis playing, writer type. This is proof of mama don’t let your children double major in economics and philosophy. If he just majored in economics, he might have been able to go straight into an investment bank. Quick learner that he was, he realized that he would rather be eating these cup cakes rather than writing about them and so he then transitioned over from writer to editor to editor of more proprietary, high-value insider publications. By hook and crook and hard work and intelligence he has transformed himself into a financial writing innovator.

I think you should apply to Wharton. Why you omitted Wharton, I don’t know. I like you and schools will like you. Admission committees are often composed of people like you, liberal arts business who had an interest in business. The fact that you are a writer means you are probably well spoken. Wharton might say we could use a guy like you. You are a few basis points on your GMAT below Wharton’s numbers but they might very well eat that given that you are not the typical i-banker. You seem more articulate, fun loving, and more well read than the typical investment banker.

The question is can you get hired by an i-bank? The more important question is would an admissions committee think you can get hired by an i-bank? I think you need to say you want to go into financial publishing, like Rupert Murdoch. That might be an alternative career and one that is more attractive to an admissions committee.

Your chances at Wharton are about 30%, depending on the cohort they put you in. If they assign you to the investment banking cohort, you might pop out because your background is so interesting. But that is a very competitive cohort and they have people like that coming out of their pant’s pocket. That’s why you might have more of an edge if you compete as someone who is interested in financial publishing.

It’s clear you are not the plain vanilla investment banker type.


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Clik here to view. brunette business woman

Ms. Future COO

 

  • 760 GMAT
  • 3.89 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree from a top 40 private U.S. university in New England
  • Work experience includes a year with a major bank in New York as an operations analyst, and three and one-half years with a major social media company in Silicon Valley in supply chain operations (purchasing servers for data centers)
  • Two internships at Big Three consulting firms in the accounting function
  • Two promotions in three years to a senior level normally held by someone with 10 to 15 years experience
  • Extracurricular involvement as a marketing head for a small financial literacy nonprofit for one year; several months in a mentoring program at the State Department that involves travel to Africa
  • Goal: To move into a strategic planning operations role at an early stage tech company, with a long-term objective of becoming a chief operating officer
  • 26-year-old whie female

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
Wharton: 40%
MIT: 40% to 50%
Northwestern: 50%
Dartmouth: 50%
New York: 50%+
Georgetown: 59%+

Sandy’s Analysis: You’re a rare case, a woman in operations, which is a real plus. Or it could be, that is the issue. You have a 3.89 from what I would call a second tier-school. If you look up top 40 privates in New England, you’re in the category of Boston University or Northeastern University. Those are fine schools but they are not feeder schools to HBS, Wharton, or MIT. You have a very consistent career in operations, from a bulge bracket bank to your current job at a social media company in Silicon Valley.

You give an example of your job as purchasing servers for data centers. Let me just say that the word purchasing in the business school admissions process is not a powerful word. Purchasing agent is what your uncle who comes to Thansgiving and never went to college does. When I grew up in Long Island in this lower middle-class community, a lot of these guys were purchasing agents at Grumman Aircraft. That was the leading high tech firm in Long Island at that point.

You know what you want to do and you know where you are going. You paint a tight picture. You’re a very strong candidate if you can just describe what you do. My advice: Make what you do sound strategic, not purchasing. You need to make it clear that you are deciding whether to buy more servers or to communicate by smoke signals. That is a strategic decision.

You say you applied in Round 1 at Harvard. So here’s another piece of advice: If you get an interview, you should hire someone to do a mock interview. There are a lot of people with your stats who don’t get into Harvard. There’s two ways to present yourself: As the BU purchasing agent or as the woman in stategic technology candidate. If you can present yourself as the woman in strategic operations, your chances are very good at all your target schools. If you present as someone from BU who is a purchasing agent, your chances are less good. The way you present yourself is important. This is a case where they may not be able to see what is behind what you present.


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Clik here to view. spy

Ms. Former Intelligence Officer

 

  • 690 GMAT (42V/42Q)
  • 3.62 GPA
  • Undergraduate degree in political science and history from Duke University
  • Work experience includes two years as a counter-intelligence analyst for the Department of Defense; three years working for a leading outdoor experiential education nonprofit that works primarily with underserved youth and veterans (think Outward Bound or NOLS); After a year of leading multi-day leadership expeditions (backpacking, canoeing, rockclimbing), she joined the office staff and serve as the Executive Director’s Assistant and Special Projects Coordinator, gaining a crash course in all areas of nonprofit management; after two years promoted to current position as the Development and Corporate Relations Manager in a larger regional office of the same organization
  • Goals: To transition into a corporate social responsibility or cause marketing role
    in a for-profit or hybrid company, with the long-term objective of becoming an executive director or CEO of an established nonprofit focused on youth and/or community development
  • “I currently live in Philadelphia and would like to stay in Philadelphia during and after school–for that and many other reasons, Wharton is my number 1 choice”
  • 27-year-old black female

    Odds of Success:

    Wharton: 50%
    Harvard: 40% to 50%
    Yale: 50%
    Duke: 50%
    UNC: 50%+

    Sandy’s Analysis:What we have is a black female from Duke with a pretty damn high GPA of 3.62 and we have a 690 GMAT which is marginally accepted by many places and for an underrepresented minority is a pretty good score. A 690 GMAT in the URM cohort could get you in the top 5%. More important than that, it just signals to a business school that if you can do a 690, you can do the work at anyplace so they would have real confidence in you.

    Then, you have essentially two jobs on your resume. One seems odd. You describe it as counter terrorism intelligence for the Department of Defense. Let’s put that aside for the moment. After two years, you leave that job to become a field instructor for an Outward Bound-type organization working with underserved youth and veterans. This sounds like you worked in this odd, super spy job and then left for something completely different. As a matter of due diligence, what you have to do is to explain the Department of Defense job. You don’t have to excuse it. You just have to say, ‘When I graduated Duke, I took job because my experience was this and that and then I transitioned into an Outward Bound organization for the following reasons.’ That is quite a pivot, as they say. Schools will be very interested in that and will want you to explain it.

    The only other small question is your current employer. You say you are in some sort of corporate development job for a large regional office of the organization so your employer has got to be big time. If it’s not Outward Bound or a well-known organization, you have to describe it in some detail.

    This is a very powerful profile but your story is going to be powerful everywhere and possibly least so at Wharton. Wharton is not really an NGO, nonprofit type school. They are open to it, but it’s not something they go crazy over. If they only take a few people like that, they could very well take you.

    It’s your choice but you only go to business school once. I would apply to Harvard Business School. Throw one in there. i have a feeling that you would not only get into HBS, they would give you a lot of money. They have a lot of money to give, and you are the kind of person they would like giving it to. That money could buy a lot of a get-out-of-Philadelphia decision. For you, Harvard would be free. Not only would they waive tuition, they would give you money to come. Whatever is keeping you in Philadelphia, if it is for a significant other, give him the money Harvard will give you.

    Your presentation was terrific, by the way. Your short version nailed it.

    ‘Department of Defense analyst turned nonprofit professional with a strong background in leadership experience wants to go to Wharton.’

    That is a terrific piece of summary. You ought to apply to Stanford as well. You are a classic Stanford applicant. Stanford would be happy to bring down their GMAT score for you. I bet the odds for you at 30% to 40%.


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    Clik here to view.     Patriotic soldier salute

     

    Mr. National Guard

     

    • 700 GMAT
    • 3.89 GPA
    • Undergraduate degree in finance from a big state school (think Ohio or Penn State)
    • Work experience includes two years as a consultant at Deloitte; to more years at a bulge bracket investment bank as an analyst; currently an aviation officer in the Army National Guard
    • Extracurricular involvement in leadership positions in ROTC clubs, a business fraternity, and investment club; volunteer work on trips to poor areas in a European country as well as Miami
    • “I should have great recs from both National Guard and from work. I don’t exactly know how to explain going national guard instead of full time Army (it just made sense to keep the ball rolling with my career). “Is it a big red flag that I didn’t go to a better school? No excuse other than I didn’t give it much thought and just got motivated after being there.”
    • Goal: To work for a private equity firm to continue to help grow struggling areas
    • 27-year-old white male

    Odds of Success:

    Harvard: 20%
    Wharton: 30%
    Columbia: 30% to 40%
    MIT: 20%
    Chicago: 30%
    Dartmouth: 30% to 40%
    Yale: 30% to 40%

    
Sandy’s Analysis: Going to Penn State is not an issue. The top 5 business schools are OK with that if it fits some kind of first-generation college narrative of a young lad on the way up. What may be more of an issue is how they compute your Deloitte and Bulge Bracket experience. You are competing in a cohort of finance types where often the profile is bulge bracket, private equity, venture capital, or hedge funds.

    So given the choice between that guy from a near Ivy-ish college (public or private) and then an i-bank/PE type, they will take THAT guy, especially if your GMAT does not go much over 700.
Ironically, that is where the Penn State DNA comes back to bite you. What you should have done was get that bulge bracket job right out of college. “Ha ha, you say, that is real hard at Penn State.”

    Yup, I say back, that is how top B-schools punish kids like you without saying they do that. Let’s not get too cute, though. Get a 730 GMAT and solid recs, execute your applicadtions serviceably and you got a solid shot at Wharton, Columbia, Tuck, Yale and the rest.

    Not sure the National Guard vs. the regular U.S. Army is an issue because military service is a plus–and schools don’t split hairs over it. I’d be real interested if anyone has anecdotes, hearsay, etc. contra.

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    Clik here to view.     startupguy

    Mr. Bootstrapped Entrepreneur

     

    • 700 GMAT
    • 4.0 GPA
    • Undergraduate degree in engineering from unknown university
    • Work experience includes a bootstrapped startup in 2013 in ndustrial electronics which became profitable this year with triple the revenue year over year
    • Extracurricular involvement as part of his college editorial board, member of IEEE
    • Father was a successful entrepreneur who co-founded a software company in the 1990s and sold off his equity in the early 2000s; the company achieved a market cap of more than $100 million
    • 26-year-old male

    Odds of Success:

    Harvard: 10%
    Stanford: 5%
    Wharton: 10%
    MIT: 20%
    Chicago: 10% to 20%

    Sandy’s Analysis: A fair amount of your admissions outcomes will depend on both the size and the stability of your company, oddly, just in some trophy sense. And where you went to college (a bit, but 4.0 in engineering is solid in most cases). My tough love: Retake GMAT, just to show them you are serious.

    Aside from college (maybe) there are no markers in your background that I can relate to–e.g. any work history beyond the sole start-up. That is troublesome to business school admissions. Even internships during college would help a bit.

    As to your need for an MBA, that is a tricky piece. It’s unclear what he wants to do next and what condition his current company is in. All that said, I don’t think this is an H/S/W admit. They have too many guys sorta like this but just better in every count. They’ve worked for blue chip firms, then started a company, boast higher GMATs, have startups backed by venture capitalists who can write glowing recommendations. The same might apply to MIT Sloan, but they may be a little more open if the company he started is sizable and impressive.T his does not seem like a Booth profile, either.

    The fact that your dad started and sold a business could be an asset to schools, does dad have an MBA? It looks like dad may have helped out here in the bootstrapping? That is not the kiss of death, and could explain why he did not need VCs. Otherwise, I would not brag about not needing venture capital cash. Business schools love VCs or angel investors or private equity investment guys. It is just a vote of confidence from a person willing to put up his or her own money, and it indicates that you can sell your idea to a third party party. Those are all good deeds in the view of admissions people at business schools.

    If you really want an MBA, you also need to make some case about why you need the degree now, and what is going to happen to your business once you leave it.

    My suggestion: Say dad will be running it!


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    Clik here to view.     woman at work

    Ms. Chemical Engineer

     

    • 760 GMAT (50Q/41V/8IR/6AWA)
    • 3.14 GPA (My father passed away freshman year, I was academically dismissed and out of school for a year before re-enrolling, writing most of my essays about this period of growth)
    • Undergraduate degree in chemistry from a top 30 university
    • 3.73 GPA
    • Master’s degree from same university in chemical engineering
    • Work experience includes four years as a control systems engineer/programmer at a major company, writing the code that automates manufacturing processes and optimizing them
    • “I work as a contractor at an unknown company with big name pharma and chemical companies”
    • Extracurricular involvement as a mentor to girls trying to go into STEM, a mentor to at-risk teenage girl, a basketball referee, a foster dog owner; also write a blog on cooking and baking and makeup and style; do online math and science tutorin
    • Goal: To go into consulting and ultimately obtain a leadership role at a pharma company
    • “I want to combine my technical experience in actual manufacturing operations with business knowledge to optimize things top down and reintroduce an emphasis on innovation”
    • 28-year-old white female

    Odds of Success:

    Harvard: 30% to 40%
    Wharton: 40%+
    Northwestern: 40% to 50%
    Michigan: 50%+
    MIT: 40%+

    Sandy’s Analysis: You have nothing to worry about. You’re a solid applicant to an elite MBA program. The schools will overlook your bad grades that first year. Ultimately, the issue is what they think of your company and your work. You really need to make this as clear as possible. I would not present it exactly the way you did.

    It’s OK that you can code (well, actually more than OK; these days that is real good), but you should not default to that being all you have done in the past four years. That can’t be your entire work history. You need to work in some jive about being the bridge between the contractor and the big pharma company, and getting to know and work with the different cultures. You should also get the kind of recommendations to highlight that, one from the contractor and one from the pharma company.

    The rest of your profile is real solid. Being female, having a 760 GMAT and a STEM background is a great base to get you into one of the world’s best business schools.

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    Clik here to view.     teacher

    Ms. Teacher To Government

     

    • 158Q, 159V GRE (Plan to retake)
    • 3.5 GPA
    • Undergraduate degree from an Ivy-like university (think Duke)
    • Work experience includes two years in Teach for America, in school leadership roles and having won teaching awards; one year in a
      selective public policy fellowship, working in a city’s public housing agency on its financial sustainability plan; and two-plus years in the chief operating office of a large school district, winning a promotion after first year to a management position where the focus is on strategic advisement
    • Extracurricular involvement on the junior board of a neighborhood youth development organization; volunteer in neighborhood group voting on local policies
    • “Why an MBA?: I have worked in environments where it’s tough to break the status quo and make measurable impact. In order to lead in these settings one must be able to come up with creative solutions, make decisions utilizing difficult to gather data, build relationships with various stakeholders, and for lack of better phrasing, bring private sector skills. I want to develop my skills in quantitative analysis, build my confidence as a manager, and expose myself to new ways of management”
    • Goal: To move into public sector consulting with a long-term objective of going into state/federal government to run a program either in education or housing
    • Long-term pipe dream: To run for some sort of local office
    • “I originally thought about an MPA but since I have ~3 years working in government I want a degree that will expose me to new ways of thinking and courses that can add other skills to my tool belt”
    • 26-year-old white female

    Odds of Success:

    Harvard: 20% to 30%
    HBS/Kennedy: 20%
    Kennedy School: 40% to 50%
    Yale: 40% to 50%
    Northwestern: 40% to 50%
    Michigan: 50%+
    Columbia: 40%
    NYU: 50%+

    Sandy’s Analysis: Grrr. As you sense, this is a real strong Kennedy School MPA application, and given the choice between getting an MPA from the Kennedy School or an MBA from Michigan or NYU, I would go to Harvard unless your real dream is to flip into investment banking and make millions, or any variant of that.

    Lots of K school kids also wind up at McKinsey, Bain or BCG so that is something else to think about. Your ‘problem’ is not your GPA. It’s that your resume does not clearly lead to business school, and no amount of your yelling in the application is going to change an adcom’s mind.

    They may admit you anyway because they like you and with a better GRE score, you might have OK stats for them. I’m not seeing this as an HBS admit, although I could be wrong. They take one to four applicants a year with similar TFA + one and two more experiences. Those candidates, however, are often golden children with rock solid GPA/GMAT scores, TFA and maybe one more job as the right hand person to the Secretary of HEW or some other prestige player in the government. On the other hand, you are certainly in the trenches, and they may respect that.

    I believe (someone confirm) that you can apply to dual HBS-HKS program and get admitted to HKS and dinged at HBS. So, you should do that. If dinged at HBS, think real hard about HKS. I’m a huge believer in branding (shocking, I know). Going to Harvard in any legitimate capacity is life changing, even the flipping Education School and HKS is a wonderful license to hustle, as I have noted in the past.

    And there is the X factor of going to the Kennedy School. The chances of meeting new, important, life-changing people is way higher in the HKS eco-system, although this is hard to put a number on, and a good amount of that happening depends on what kind of person you are and what your interests are.

    You may get into the other MBA programs you note, lots to like here. An elevated GRE score would make life easier for everyone. Do a less screamy and more substantive and quiet job about why you want the MBA, allude to education and other government figures with MBAs and say they are role models.

    Real life outcomes are rarely what people imagine they will be entering B-school.

    Just saying.

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    Clik here to view.     Pilot

    Mr. Blackhawk Pilot

     

    • 690/710 GMAT (recent practice tests)
      3.75 GPA
      Undergraduate degree in business management, with an emphasis in finance, from Brigham Young University
      Work experience as a Company Commander of 88 soldiers and more than $50 million of equipment (and will deploy soon); Blackhawk pilot and captain in the U.S. Army, with one earlier combat deployment to Afghanistan as a flight platoon leader
      Extracurricular involvement in church service; Boy Scouts scoutmaster and cubmaster; compete in triathlons; served for two years in Brazil as LDS Missionary (speak Portuguese fluently)
      Goal: Interested in a lot of things, but perhaps consulting or finance
      30-years-old male, married with three young children (will enter B-School at 32 based on active duty commitment after flight school)

    Odds of Success:

    Harvard: 20% to 30%
    MIT: 30%
    Wharton: 30%
    Northwestern: 30% to 40%
    Duke: 40%
    Texas: 50%+

    Sandy’s Analysis: Your age is not a problem. There are 32-year olds at Harvard Business School and in many other elite MBA programs. The classic explanation for older kids (though you are hardly a kid) is pilots, docs and other military. Schools realize that being a pilot requires extra years in service because of the intense training and certification involved. I don’t have stats, but man, if the ‘average’ age at HBS is 27, that means there are lots of peeps beyond that, since my guess is there are not many kids younger than 23. So to get to an average of 27 means there is plenty of room for you.

    Moving right along, as noted many times, B-schools have a hard time judging the ‘quality’ of military careers, but the two things they do understand is pilot and combat. You got both. Your stats are solid and your other miscellaneous things are perky, too.

    Yup, a better GMAT would not hurt, but this is a solid story. I think you got a real shot at HBS, and other places go for this with serviceable execution of your applications. Say you want to be a consultant. That is a clear goal that will endear you to every admissions officier because they know there are plenty of those jobs on campus. You cannot go wrong with that and McKinsey, Bain and BCG loves guys like you.


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    Clik here to view.     sales guy

    Mr. University

     

The post Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds appeared first on Poets and Quants.

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