Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds

After working for Oppenheimer & Co. in private equity, this 29-year-old male professional raised $5 million to start up a small oil company that had a $12 million valuation in just 16 months. Besides a 690 GMAT and a 3.95 grade point average, he has an unusual distinction on his resume: he is a whistleblower who helped the SEC catch a crook.

This Aussie male professional has done a little bit of everything, from working for a Silicon Valley start-up to an Asian-focused hedge fund. He’s scored more than 750 on GMAT practice tests and has a 3.7 GPA from a highly ranked Australian business school. Now, he wants an MBA to transition into a venture capital firm in the U.S.

He’s a 29-year-old U.S. Air Force Captain who, in his own words, “plans missions, operates weapons, and tells the pilot what to do.” With a 680 GMAT and a 3.5 GPA in finance from the University of Memphis, he’s hoping an MBA degree will allow him to move into a consulting job in civilian life. His ultimate ambition: To “develop into a future CEO.”

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

What these applicants share in common is the goal to get into one of the world’s best business schools. Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. There’s also a video portion of the series (above) featuring Kreisberg live evaluating the prospects of one of our candidates: our gung-ho Air Force Captain who wants to become a future chief executive officer.

If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

Sandy’s candid analysis:

Mr. Air Force Captain

680 GMAT
3.5 GPA
Undergraduate degree in finance from the University of Memphis
3.5 GPA
Undergraduate degree in economics from Penn State’s online program
Work experience as a combat systems officer in the U.S. Air Force
“I plan missions, operate weapons, and tell the pilot what to do. CSO is a rated slot (pilots, CSOs, RPAs and ABMs are all rated) and like all rated slots, they are highly competitive. I was an ROTC cadet.”
Extracurricular involvement in community service, including 150 hours during my Air Force career and more than 33 hours in college
“I am an extremely ambitious, business-minded person. I want to be a consultant so I can develop into a future CEO.”
29-year-old Air Force Captain in the Air Force

Target Schools:

Harvard: 20% to 30%
Stanford: 15% to 20%
Chicago: 40%
Columbia: 40%
Berkeley: 50%+
UCLA: 50%+
Yale: 20% to 30%

Sandy’s Analysis: I’ve said this before about the military and it’s important to underscore: The people who read admission folders are not veterans as a rule. They don’t have an understanding of what people do in the Armed Services. They have a very hard time determining whether you have a Gold, Silver or Bronze military career. They do understand that a military pilot is an elite thing. They understand that being a Navy Seal is an elite thing. They probably understand that being an Army Ranger is an elite thing.

If you are in the military, it’s very important that you give them a flavor of your career in terms they can understand. Unfortunately, what happens with military applicants is that your GPA and GMAT wind up counting a lot because those are easy elements for admissions people to understand.

What rank should you have? Most people who apply to business schools are captains. I think it is hard to get a rank higher than that within the typical five-year stint that people apply from. I don’t see many Colonels apply to business school. This guy is going to be a long shot at Harvard and Stanford with a 680 GMAT and a 3.5 GPA. There is nothing driving him inin terms of gender, or an overcoming adversity story. Harvard and Stanford would just look for someone with higher stats. The average GPA and GMAT scores of military admits to Harvard and Stanford would be an interesting set of numbers but I think it is higher than 3.5/680.

The only story that would overcome that would be a personal adversity narrative. He also comes across as a little too gung-ho, believe it or not. He says, ‘I am an extremely ambitious, business-minded person.’ You might think, ‘What’s wrong with that?’ Oddly, schools don’t like to hear that as directly as he puts it.

And they don’t want to hear that you want to be a consultant so you can be a future CEO. They want to hear that you want to be a consultant so that you can help companies grow and provide jobs and new opportunities. Sure, that is what he meant, or maybe meant, but if the full application and touch and feel of the thing is too directly ambitious like that, it could be trouble. Once you get outside of H+S, and if this application gets hip to the standard application BS, well, what you got is a pretty solid guy whom you’d like to have on your team in most situations. That should be enough at other schools he is interested in.

Mr. Aussie

750+ GMAT (practice tests)
3.7 GPA (top 10% of cohort)
Undergraduate degree in finance and accounting from a highly ranked Australian business school with an exchange to a Top 5 U.S. business school
Elite athlete scholarship to university
Work experience includes internships at a mid-market investment bank in M&A, a bulge bracket investment bank, and a hedge fund; then six months at an bulge bracket investment bank, one year at an Asian-focused hedge fund, and two years at a tech start-up in Silicon Valley
Extracurricular involvement as a black belt in martial arts; frequent contributor to university magazines as an interviewer of high profile business people within the Asian market; represented Australia in athletics at high school; established a charity focused on tutoring indigenous Australians with the intention of securing more Indigenous Australians the opportunity to study at the tertiary institutions
Goal: To work for a U.S. venture capital firm or to return to hedge fund work within the U.S. market
Single Aussie male

Target Schools:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
Stanford: 20% to 30%
Wharton: 50%
Columbia: 50%
NYU: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Well, get that “750+” GMAT if you can, the “+” doesn’t count all that much. Just try getting something near 730 if you want to go to Stanford because one issue we have with you is lack of unbroken blue chip experience –although you are close. We all love Aussies and a good deal of this will turn on the reputation of your school in U.S. business school circles.

You say, “Top ranked Australian Business School in Finance/Accounting, with exchange to top 5 undergrad U.S. business program,” which could mean top ranked Australian Finance School, which may not mean much, or top ranked school in Australia. I am no expert, but one respected ranking of Aussie U’s (THE Times Higher Education World University Rankings) is below:

1. University of Melbourne
2. Australian National University
3. University of Queensland
4. University of Sydney
5. Monash University
6. University of New South Wales
7. University of Western Australia
8. University of Adelaide
9. The University of Newcastle
10. Macquarie University

http://www.australianuniversities.com.au/rankings/

Are we talking one of them? Apparently given your internships. The easy answer, and my guess is, you know this, how many kids has your school sent to top U.S. business schools.

Moving right along, we got this quicksilver to play with, “6 months full time at Bulge Bracket investment bank followed by 1 year at an Asian-focused hedge fund & then 2 years at a technology start-up in Silicon Valley.” A good deal of the impact of that will turn on how well known the hedge fund is and what kind of facts you can provide about the start-up.

Let me state the obvious: There are hedge funds and there are hedge funds, and these days, everyone seems to have a hedge fund or one on his resume. So the pedigree of your hedge fund counts a bit. Make sure in your application to underscore its AUM, historical investment record, number of partners, any metrics which can give it solidity. I realize that is not always easy because some data is private.

What is true about hedge funds goes double for start-ups. I mean, as noted prior, any moron can start a company, and many have. You seem like a solid, well-credentialed dude, but make it clear. To U.S. adcom eyes, there are some possible soft spots here, including leaving a bulge bracket IB after only 6 months to join a hedge fund. Believe me, that is something anyone at an IB would love to do but it is very rare to do that in the U.S./Wall Street environment where a typical “jail sentence” is two years IB before you get to do two years in an HF.

As to your extracurrics:

Black belt in martial arts–I like, but schools don’t care.

Regular contributor to university magazines interviewing high profile business people within the Asian market–I like, but schools mostly don’t care.

Represented Australia in Athletics at High School, Elite Athlete scholarship to University–hmmmmm, I like, and some jock sniffing adcom might get a nice whiff, as might some literary adcom might like the magazine stuff.

Established a charity focused on tutoring indigenous Australians with the intention of securing more Indigenous Australians the opportunity to study at tertiary institutions– Bingo. Everyone loves indigenous peoples, so your Hail Mary chance of getting into Stanford depends on how much you can work up this angle.

Bottom line: There is lots to like here but also lots of question marks. I think H and S are going to be hard because there are dudes sorta like you with rock solid credentials, especially in terms of gold-plated schooling, as well as IB and HF experience. I could be wrong, a good deal depends on the specifics. If you could “normalize up” the schooling and first two jobs so that you appear to be an elite dude with a proxy Wall St IB/HF career who is NOW working for a real start-up and HEARTS indigenous people . . . . . . . . . . well, that works, but it is a big ‘if.”

Goals: U.S. venture capital or return to hedge fund work within the U.S. market.

HUH?????
Ba’day Mate!!!

Saying that ain’t doing you any good and throws you deeper in the ultra- competitive pool of absolute gold-plated U.S. Ivy/IB/PE kids. You are bleaching out any possible color to your story. What makes you the least bit interesting is your Aussie background, your work with indigenous peoples, and your move from a HF to a start-up. By stating goals as you do, you are negating every element of that possibly interesting story.You need to concoct some wall-banging story about working with Asian funds to support start-ups in the region, and throw in the particulars of your own start-up experiences. If you can wind up employing indigenous peoples more the better. I’m not fully spinning this out, but I COULD, I hope you get the idea.

Mr. Whistleblower

690 GMAT
3.95 GPA
Undergraduate degree in economics from UC-Irvine
Masters of Accounting from the University of Southern California
Work experience includes a 16-month stint as an M&A analyst at a boutique investment bank; two years with a promotion to associate director at Oppenheimer & Co. where he worked in private equity and developed the team’s most profitable product
“SEC Whistleblower” who led to the agency’s recovery of $3 million from Oppenheimer and a person’s lifetime ban from the securities industry—“I have been told business schools would find this interesting and valuable”
Raised $5 million to start up a small oil company that had a $12 million valuation 16 months later
Currently an advisory board member for two small oil companies, a tech/entertainment start-up founded by a Goldman Sachs banker, and a charity that provides critical surgical and reconstructive care to children in conflict regions
Strong recommendations
29-year-old male, HBS legacy and Penn 3rd generation legacy

Target Schools:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 15%
Wharton: 50%
Columbia: 50%
MIT: 40%
NYU: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: This sounds like MBA as Trophy Wife syndrome, a disease schools are not too found of. You’re 29, and you have been hustling rather well for two to three years and by your own description, have made a pile of $$$. You are now a board member of three small companies and a charity. Didn’t I just read about you in the New York Times today about the New York Charity Circuit

On Any Given Night Out

(for those attending benefits, their sense of having arrived is seldom in doubt) or was it in this even more shocking trend piece on the same page.

(for those attending benefits, their sense of having arrived is seldom in doubt).

OK, seriously, why exactly do you need an MBA given the above.

It is not clear if you are still working in your start-up oil company, but if you are, why would you leave it? If not, why are going to B-school except to meet smart chicks?

To be brutally honest, unless your HBS legacy status comes with a lot of zeroes or with a building attached, you are the kind of legacy they like to ding, just to pump up their legacy ding stats given that there are “some” legacies they gotta take. “Some” is Dee Leopold’s favorite fudge word –“many” HBS interview invites went out in Week 1, she said, “some” will go out in Week 2. Scary?

A 3.95 from UC Irvine and an accounting degree is solid (although accounting degrees are a bit suspect as being too business-y but that per se is not fatal). Your 16 months at a boutique IB and your “fly up” to Oppenheimer PE after 16 months is solid but not gold-plated.

Being an SEC whistleblower, apparently reporting a guy at your own firm, is one of those things that could go either way: positive if it is part of a pattern of public integrity gigs and interests, or odd (and even suspect) if it is a one-off. We would have to know more about the context. I don’t mean to minimize it, but just thinking strategically, it is an element that would need careful consideration as part of an overall application.

Adcoms, of course, would publicly and loudly disagree (WE LOVE WHISTLEBLOWERS), and then we would need some inside adcom whistleblower to say, “Nah, Sandy is actually right.”

All the above convinces me you will have a hard time at H or S. Wharton might go for this just because they like rich people (well, everyone does, but H +S can pretend more) and stats are good although a 700+ GMAT would help there (less so at H+S).

Columbia might play out like Wharton. MIT is hard to predict in this context. They might be taken by the start-up success and good numbers and just roll the dice, certain you won’t be reporting as unemployed after graduation, one way or the other. This is a case where you really need to get your act together in the application and for interviews about why you want an MBA. NYU will go for this if you spin some cotton candy about starting businesses in New York, and they know you are not using them as a safety, which may entail them putting you on the WL, you then getting dinged from other places, and then really telling them, “Look, dudes, I’m coming.”

Mr. Banker

720 GMAT (49V/42Q)
3.6 GPA (closer to a 3.8 if you exclude freshman year)
Undergraduate degree from a prestigious midwest university (think Notre Dame, Northwestern, Michigan or Chicago)
Work experience includes three years at a bulge bracket investment bank (not Goldman Sachs) and two years at a mega-investment fund (think Blackstone, KKR, and TPG)
Extracurricular involvement in community service in both volunteer and leadership roles since high school
Male who was born in India but grew up in the U.S.

Target Schools:

Harvard: 40%
Stanford: 20% to 30%
Wharton: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: Guys like you get in and dinged from H+S depending on execution, recs, not blowing the interview and luck.

One would like to know what the admit rate at H+S is for the Blackstone, KKR, TPG cohort, but whatever it is, you superficially do not appear to be in the top half of that cohort based on schooling and GMAT, although you are close. The trouble is, it is an ultra-competitive cohort, and while Harvard and Stanford are willing to ‘blink’ at 3.6 and a 720, and often wink at both, why should they do so in your case?

That is the question. It would really help if you had some X factor to add to the mix, and I am not sure, exactly, what “community service in both volunteer and leadership roles since high school . . .” means. What we really want to see is some X factor which connects up to your personal narrative and has real impact. That is probably not needed for some woman from KKR or TPG from Princeton with a 3.8 and a 760 GMAT and just normal extras, but that ain’t you, babe.

Guys like you get into Wharton all the time, and unless you know something I don’t, I would strongly suggest applying there. You may get into H or S but I would not be shocked if you did not. The best benchmark is snooping around and seeing how your firm did last year? You might find out that 70 percent of KKR/TPG applicants go into H or S, but on facts presented, you may NOT be in the top 70 percent of the KKR/TPG cohort.

Mr. Air Force Captain

Mr. Aussie

Mr. Whistleblower

Mr. Banker

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

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