Handicapping Your Elite MBA Odds

This 27-year-old management consultant in India already has an MBA degree from an Indian business school. But with a 730 GMAT and a goal of running a non-profit in his home country, he now wants to get a second MBA from a top U.S. program.

After serving for a year in Americorps, this 25-year-old woman became a programmer at a venture capital and major studio-backed entertainment startup. With a 730 GMAT and a 3.7 grade point average from a public ivy, she hopes to go to business school to enhance her career opportunities.

After racking up two years as an investment banking analyst at a bulge bracket bank in New York, he’s been working as an associate for a private equity firm in the past three years. With a 710 GMAT and a 3.8 GPA from Duke University, this 26-year-old Asian male now hopes to use the MBA to transition into a corporate strategy role.

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

What these applicants share in common is the goal to get into one of the world’s best business schools. Do they have the raw stats and experience to get in? Or will they get dinged by their dream schools?

Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

Mr. Second MBA

730 GMAT (will retake to try for a 750)
Undergraduate degree in engineering from a second-tier engineering college in India, graduating in the top 3% of the class
MBA from a top five business school in India, graduating in the top 15% of the class
Work experience includes a short, one-year stint for an information technology firm before getting the MBA and transitioning into financial services as an analyst for a year; has worked for the past two and one-half years for a major consulting company that is a major feeder to business schools
Extracurricular involvement running own non-profit fitness center, joint secretary/treasurer for festivals and conventions at both the engineering institute and business school; coach of a local power lifting team (all individuals belonging to underprivileged groups from my non-profit gym); singer, fitness modeling; Have won several awards in debating, stage plays, singing, technical paper presentations
“My life story as been quite challenging. I was raised by a single (school educated) parent (my mother) mostly in a rural setup in India, and completed all my education on scholarships before finally becoming self sustaining (financially) after MBA. So a lot of career/education decisions were driven by the financial condition”
Goal: “I wish to come back to India and make an impact in or help develop the non-profit fitness industry”
“Reasons for the second MBA: I wish to get some profound education/learning in social entrepreneurship, a kind of education I couldn’t get earlier”
27-year-old male in India

Odds of Success:

Wharton: 20%
Northwestern: 30% to 40%
Duke: 30% to 40%
Virginia: 30% to 40%
Berkeley: 20% to 30%

Sandy’s Analysis: Let me cut to the chase. Your stated reason for the second MBA is that you want to take two years off and get an MBA to pursue social entrepreneurship. My first advice is, don’t say that. There is a lot going on here, but you can and should boil it down to something simple.

There are a lot of people in India who get an MBA and then want an American MBA for reasons of upgrading their employment or higher status. There is a way to package that. It is recognized and the trend is your friend. I would say the Indian MBA was technical, and now I want to learn about leadership and strategy to be an impactful leader. I would say you want to be an impactful management consultant and an American MBA could extend my horizons.

You sounds like a really smart guy. Either because you were poor or you may have missed the IIT and you are presenting yourself as an outsider within the inner world of the Indian hierarchy, trying to break into class one. Get the chip off the shoulder. Get more savvy about how to present yourself. And if you can get a 750 GMAT, it wouldn’t hurt. Due to the fecklessness and spinelessness of of the MBA admissions community, the GMAT has become much more important than it ever has been. It’s hypocritical of them to value the GMAT the way they do and then give a sermonette about what they are looking for.

Harvard and Stanford are stretches because they have enough Indians without your problems. There are a lot of Indians who do not have problems. Wharton has a lot of high-performing Desis. They were first born, not second born. You are a classic second born kid. You’ve had to figure stuff out. Things don’t come naturally to you. That can make for a very powerful personality in the fullness of time, but in the eyes of Harvard and Stanford admissions, that is a reach. You are not getting into those schools.

If you get the 750 GMAT, Wharton is an acceptable reach. If you present yourself correctly and do your homework, you could get into a lot of other very good MBA programs. I don’t say this very much, but you should educate yourself or hire a consultant to get you in sync with what counts in this game. If you do that, you would be a natural fit at places ranked five through ten in Poets&Quants’ ranking.

What you need is a pair of gray slacks and a blue button-down shirt. If you could get that part of your story correct, you would be attractive because of your tech background. McKinsey, BCG or Bain could say, yeah, we could put this guy on tech cases after you get your MBA.

Ms. Startup

680 GMAT
3.74 GPA (completed in 3 and a half years)
Undergraduate degree in finance from Southern Methodist University, in honors economics program
Work experience includes one and one-half years as a research analyst at an affiliate of BNY Mellon; founder and CEO of a startup in food tech for the past year
Extracurricular involvement as a volunteer with an organization that fights childhood obesity (tie-in to my business)
Extensive travel and volunteer experience including service work in India, Australia, and Africa and visiting 26+ countries
Goal: To use MBA for a career in the non-profit sector
“I co-founded a startup last year, which makes it slightly more difficult for me to assess my chances, as I’m not sure how B-schools view this in general”
25-year-old white female

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Yale: 30%+
MIT: 20%
Georgetown: 40% to 50%
Berkeley: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: A lot depends on the size (sales, employees, venture capital investments) and other reality metrics of your start-up. Schools want to know if it’s a digital version of a lemonade stand or a real business. Does it have a powerful website (schools will look at that, if they are semi-serious about you).

You say it is in “food tech.” What does that mean? Off the top of my head, that doesn’t sound like an easy in-your-garage startup.

Beyond that, you have the problems most start-up founders/applicants have: If your business is booming, why are you leaving to go to business school? If not, well, yes it is a valuable experience but these days, almost everyone and her sister has a start-up of some kind on her resume. That is why the size, sales, and any VC funding are real important.

In your case, you quit a job to do this (that is the way I read your career summary). That can be read as bold or evidence of burn out, and your job in the application is to make it appear bold. But the way to do that is to have some results.

“Currently volunteer with an organization that fights childhood obesity (tie-in to my business) Want to use my MBA towards a career in the non-profit sector.”

Hmmmmm, we now get story three in this short account of your professional life. Saying that start up ties in with do-gooder organization is a possible plus, if you were to project a career in entrepreneurship but then adding that you want to use an MBA degree toward a career in the “non-profit sector” throws us for a loop. That leads a cynical thinker to the bad cascade of thoughts that you did not like banking, did not like your start-up, are at loose ends, and envision some salvation at a non-profit.

Just saying. If that is not the case, you need to make it real clear.

I’m not seeing this as HBS or MIT because your stats and resume prestige are both on low side for those schools.

Yale is often hard on non-profit wannabes just to prove that “non-profit” is no longer their sweet spot (as it used to be). Other schools you note, Georgetown and Berk are plausible, as might be Kellogg if you get your story straight.

I would present these facts as “I’m someone with both analysis and start-up experience who is interested in leading an innovative company in a field I am interested in [say what that is and give examples]. I am applying to B-school to build out those specialist skills and learn general management.” It is OK to say that your start-up did not fully succeed, if that is true. What you need to be very careful about is making it seem that it was real, success or not, and not just a way to justify leaving that bank job.

Ms. Woman In Tech

700 GMAT (not taken but â€œshooting for cracking 700â€ )
3.7 GPA
Undergraduate degree in humanities from a public ivy (thinking of taking 3-4 econ classes this summer/fall)
Work experience includes four years in tech where I am currently a programmer at a VC- and major studio-backed entertainment startup; also one year in Americorps
Goal: To transition to product and business development in the digital media/entertainment space
“I am thinking of taking another year to work on GMAT (‘big test’ math is not my strong point), solidifying ECs (hackathons, women in tech, etc), and Econ classes, but worried I would be pushing 30 on graduation and that is not ideal? Just hear everything about how round two is so competitive and I wouldn’t have my application ready until then since I am trying to shore up my bonafides”
25-year-old white female

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30%
Stanford: 20%
Wharton: 30%
Berkeley: 40%+
UCLA: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Lots to like and lots to be concerned about.

Woman in tech, as you advertise yourself, is a good beginning, but since you are a humanities major who seems to have picked up tech along the way, a lot will depend on how you describe your jobs, how recommenders describe you and your jobs, and what B-schools think of the companies you work for and what you do.

You say, “four years in tech, currently programmer at VC/major studio-backed entertainment startups.” That is both glam sounding (well in the world of business school admissions) and concerning.

When you say ‘currently’ what do you mean, have you had a series of pick-up jobs at tech start-ups and small companies? You need to make that seem NOT THE CASE as much as possible. I’d really stress your current job in resume, recs, and as a platform for what you want to do.

You say your goals are “product and business development in digital media/entertainment space . . . .” That is a pretty good wrap up of your sorta dog’s breakfast of a resume. To the extent you can already describe what you are doing as part of that, versus straight programming, do that. I’m pretty sure your bosses over there in the digital, entertainment, start-up world are not stingy with job titles. Cook-up something credible and non-annoying.

You seem to be aware that the GMAT is a big deal, especially given some sketchiness in the rest of your story (small companies, many jobs). If going to business school is important to you, plan to take the GMAT as many times as possible to get near 700-720.

As to your other proposals and worries:

First, you desire to “solidify ECs (hackathons, women in tech, etc).” That is a secondary concern compared to GMAT. It is too late to make a real difference in the EC realm, it is over-rated to begin with (dirty little secret), but sure, women in tech is a serviceable concept and you seem to come by it honestly. I am not sure how “hackathons” get scored or credited by adcoms, and my guess is, neither do many adcoms.

Second, your concern to build out liberal arts background by taking “Econ classes.” My hunch here is that no adcom is going to care. If you get a low Q score on GMAT after two, three or four tries, well take statistics or if that is going to be hard, Intro Econ, to show that you are not number phobic, but this is a secondary issue to a good, basic, combined GMAT score.

Third, you are “worried [about] pushing 30 on graduation and that is not ideal?”It’s not ideal but it’s no big deal either. But if you can apply this upcoming year and feel ready, do so. The only reason you should put off applying ASAP is the GMAT.

Stanford is going to be a real reach given lack of seeming employment glitter and zig-zag career; Wharton does not respond to your kinds of confusion; HBS is always open for a moon shot; Berk and UCLA with your 700+ GMAT could happen.

Mr. Scuba-Diving PE

710 GMAT
3.81 GPA (Magna Cum Laude)
Undergraduate degree in economics from Duke University
Work experience includes two years as an investment banking analyst at a bulge bracket bank in New York after college, and three years as an associate at a middle market private equity firm in New York
Hobbies include scuba diving (PADI certified), golf, tennis, traveling, cooking
Goal: To move into the corporate development/corporate strategy role and away from private equity/finance
“I’ve been a long-time lurker on this thread and have been reading your posts”
26-year-old Asian male, married with no children

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Stanford: 10%
Chicago: 30% to 45%
Wharton: 30% to 45%
Dartmouth: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: This is straightforward and typical, so your story is worth highlighting.

BOTTOM LINE: Middle market private equity guys have a very difficult time getting into HBS and Stanford.

Note, I said difficult, not impossible. There are well-known middle market private equity firms with strong track records at those schools. If you are applying from those, well, just shoot par. Maybe our posters can chime in with names of such places. And then be sure to add if we are talking about white/Asian males as the admits.

You got another boo-boo with that 710 GMAT, which is on the low side for your peer groups from Ivy, banking, PE, Asia and male.

“Hobbies: Scuba Diving (PADI certified), Golf, Tennis, Traveling, Cooking”

Sound great but those don’t get bonus points with adcoms. Once you get in, they frequently get super bonus points from Wall Street hiring committees.

“Goal with MBA: Move into the corporate development/corporate strategy role and away from private equity/finance.”

Huh? That is odd and sounds like a too-clever-by-half attempt to separate yourself from your pack.

“Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Wharton and Dartmouth.”

As noted, this profile does not have as many earmarks or enough oomph for HBS or Stanford.

As to Chicago, Wharton, and Dartmouth? Those schools take and ding guys like you all the time, depending on serviceable execution, fit, recs and not blowing interview.

Mr. Investment Analyst Bound For Hedging

760 GMAT (Q 50/V 44/AWA 6/IR 8)
3.6 GPA
Undergraduate degree in finance from a large state school
Work experience includes two years at a bulge bracket bank as a back office financial analyst and two years (current) at a boutique fund as an investment analyst
Extracurricular involvement as a volunteer for Big Brothers, Big Sisters and a local church, a tutor for people taking the U.S. citizenship exam, and a mentor for alumni
Goal: To transition to fund management for a hedge fund or mutual fund
25-year-old Asian American male

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20% to 30%
Wharton: 30% to 40%
Columbia (early decision): 50%+
NYU: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: CBS Early Decision will go for this story, and especially the 760 (they like 760s no matter what the race or national origin of the test taker is!). And you seem just their finance type.

Ditto for NYU Stern, although you may have to give them added security that you are not just using them for safety, which you are. I would hold off applying there until you hear back from Columbia.
Wharton takes guys like you depending on execution and not flunking the group grope interview.

HBS is a maybe, depending on luck, solid execution, etc. They get lots of applications from guys like you, many with better pedigrees and similar stats (although a 760 GMAT is sorta rare, to HBS 730-740 ain’t much different than 760– that is NOT true at Wharton, MIT, Columbia. That’s my informed guess, although I cannot cite peer reviewed articles and double blind experiments and data sets to prove it. Also HBS might appreciate the “work your way out of the back room story.”

Getting into Columbia ED and then going to Wharton or HBS down the road is an expensive proposition, about $6,000 I think (the amount you need to deposit at Columbia to RSVP the early decision).

Good luck and hire me for your HBS mock interview, if it comes to that!

Mr. Second MBA

Ms. Startup

Ms. Woman In Tech

Mr. Scuba-Diving PE

Mr. Investment Analyst Bound For Hedging

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

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