What Are Your Odds Of Getting In?

She’s a 24-year-old community manager at a well-known digital media agency in New York. With a 690 GMAT and a 3.5 GPA from Barnard College, she plans to apply to a top business school next year to help achieve her dream of working in strategy for health products and services.

For the past four years, this 26-year-old young professional been working in sales and marketing for a boutique analytics consultancy. A former Eagle Scout, with a 730 GMAT and a 3.8 GPA, he wants to get an MBA to break into a general management role at a Fortune 100 company.

She’s a 33-year-old who has racked up eight years in government and politics, including work on two Presidential campaigns. A Republican, this first generation college grad is now hoping to use an MBA to transition into a job for a large foundation or corporate engagement office.

Sandy Kreisberg, founder of HBSGuru.com

What they all share in common is the ambition to attend one of the world’s best MBA programs and to use that experience to enhance their career paths. Sanford “Sandy” Kreisberg, founder of Boston-based MBA admissions consulting firm HBSGuru.com, is back again to analyze these and a few other profiles of actual MBA applicants who have shared their vital statistics, work backgrounds and career goals with Poets&Quants.

As usual, Kreisberg handicaps each potential applicant’s odds of getting into a top-ranked business school. If you include your own stats and characteristics in the comments, we’ll pick a few more and have Kreisberg assess your chances in a follow-up feature to be published shortly. (Please add your age and be clear on the sequence of your jobs in relaying work experience. Make sure you let us know your current job.)

And if you just have a short question, he is happy to answer that, too. So just post it in the comment section below.

Here’s Sandy’s candid assessments:

Mr. Civil Engineer

730 GMAT
3.7+ GPA
Undergraduate degree in engineering from Georgia Tech
Master’s degree in engineering from Georgia Tech
Work experience as a structural engineer at Chevron who has worked on a deep water rig and also did a 28-day-on-and-28-day-off stint in also a stint in Kazakhstan
Extracurricular involvement as president of the student chapter of the American Society of Civil Engineers, social chair of the engineering honor society, and a fundraiser who has run marathons
“Should I retake the GMAT to improve my quant score?”
Goal: To become a consultant in the energy business

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 40%
Stanford: 30%
Wharton: 40% to 50%
MIT: 50%

Sandy’s Analysis: You’re in good shape. There is always a spot at all your schools for big oil people: BP, Exxon/Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Schlumberger. What we’ve got here is a respected school, strong stats and a totally tight story. You have a desirable tech background, you work for a big name company, Chevron, and you worked on a deep water rig and did a gig in Kazakhstan. Your goal makes perfect sense. You could be an energy consultant or join one of the big three consulting firms in their energy practices.

Wharton would like a guy like you. Harvard takes guys like this. Stanford is hard for everyone and guys like this get into Stanford. It could turn on some Stanford X factor. Your leadership experience in running engineering clubs and civil engineering societies is two-tier Stanford leadership. Tier one is having an impact beyond yourself. They don’t want you to be head of the engineering club. They want you to help engineers in Bangladesh. If you don’t get into Stanford, it could be because there is some similarly credentialed energy person with these golden Stanford extras.

What could blow you up is if you execute in an ineffective way or you blow the admissions interview. At Harvard, the interview can kill a lot of smart, talented people.

Do you retake a 730 GMAT when the quant score is 75? No. Schools just want to know you can do the quant work and they will know you can do it. All they care about is the 730. That’s what they report to the magazines. Nobody will doubt the fact that you can do business school math. If you want to do it, go do it but it won’t make a dime’s difference.

Ms. Digital Media

690 GMAT (42Q/42V) (retaking and shooting for 720 and hopefully a 43-45 in quant)
3.5 GPA
Undergraduate degree in political science with a minor in Spanish from Barnard College
Work experiences includes current job as community manager at a well-known digital media agency in New York and two years as a paralegal at one of the country’s top law firms for major corporate clients (think J.P. Morgan & Apple)— [thought i wanted to go to law school]
Held a variety of internships during college, spending a summer in Korea designing curriculum and teaching business English and debate to elementary and college students as part of a small fellowship; also worked college summers as a marketing associate at a tiny marketing venture in San Francisco
Extracurricular involvement doing pro-bono law work and social media strategy for a health food startup
“Am interested in marketing strategy [potentially digitally-focused], and my dream would be to do strategy for health products and services (may tie in something about the future of baby boomer services). Have a real passion for health and nutrition, and am hoping to start some relevant volunteer work”
24-year old female (won’t be applying until next year)

Odds of Success:

Northwestern: 40%+
Chicago: 40%+
Michigan: 50%+
Wharton: 30% to 40%
Columbia: 40%+

Sandy’s Analysis: You had me at “Currently work as a Community Manager at a well-known digital media agency in NYC.”

This is a consistent, trendy (social/digital/ media marketing) and tight story where all the pieces fight together, or can be made to fit together. Business schools are falling over themselves to deal with such alien issues (to them) as digital marketing, social media, yadda, yadda (that last phrase a legacy of the pre-digital age that somehow survives). Adcoms may admit you with a secret plan to have you intern for THEM.

A 3.5 from Barnard and current GMAT–690 [42 Q, 42 V] are so-so for your target schools but I think they would blink at the GMAT given how strong and consistent the rest of your story is, although it might depend a bit on what quanty type courses you took in college.

A 720 GMAT with 80 percent on both sides would make you very solid at almost all your target schools– Kellogg, Wharton, Booth, Ross, and Columbia. For one thing, with your background in social media, you will be able to get a job after business school, in that field or at some consulting company (even MBB) which is looking to beef up its digital media resources. Get that 720 GMAT and execute sharply, take a deep breath, and apply to HBS, Could happen, especially if you really progress at your firm next year and become some kind of homegrown digital marketing guru.

Some oddments:

–“worked 2 years at one of the country’s top law firms as a litigation paralegal for big clients (think JP Morgan, Apple..etc).” That is great. Adcoms know those paralegal gigs and respect them because they are selective (although see note below) and they serve as a “this kid can really ‘eat s**t’ proxy” by which I mean if you can survive two years as a big law firm paralegal, you have the patience, serviceable hygiene, team savvy, high-boredom threshold! and good manners to survive B-school, which is kinda a paralegal gig in terms of scut work, stupidity, phony teamwork, deadlines, high boredom thresholds, late hours and sucking up to superiors (called professors) with the added liability of having to PAY THEM. Although these paralegal gigs are not AS selective as they used to be, back in the day, say the late 1970s-early 1980s, when, amazingly, thousands of Ivy league high-performing confused people toddled off to leading law firms as paralegals (this was before investment banks started hiring kids right out of college!), they still are respected for reasons above.

–“Spent a lot of time doing pro-bono work, using my Spanish, and received a pro bono award from the firm twice,” well, don’t hurt.

–“Last 5 months at the law firm I was also doing social media/strategy for a health food startup in my free time . . .” Great, that is worth noting, since it is part of your digital stagiest story.

–“Worked college summers as a marketing associate at a tiny marketing venture in SF,” also good and expand on this in your resume. It’s another bead on the digital marketing bracelet you are creating in the app.

–“interested in marketing strategy [potentially digitally-focused], and my dream would be to do strategy for health products and services (may tie in something about the future of baby boomer services). Have a real passion for health and nutrition, and am hoping to start some relevant volunteer work.” Health and nutrition are fine, but just stress your passion for digital marketing/social media, that is the gold in your story.

Everyone likes health. Not everyone can do digital marketing.

You want to sound serious and techie, not nice and granola.

Ms. Politics

GMAT unknown
3.2 GPA
Undergraduate degree in political science from a West Coast public Ivy
3.7 GPA
Master’s degree in political science from a top private university in Washington, D.C.
Work experience includes eight years in government and politics at the federal level, including political work on two Presidential campaigns, and three years in a non-profit;
“I planned events for the VP during one, led online fundraising division/direct marketing for the other), Presidential Inaugural Committee, U.S. Department of Education (Political Appointee), and helped build a political consulting firm. Also worth noting, I’m a Republican (I’m told this may have an effect on way AdComm views my application)”
Extracurricular involvement as a mentor for a non-partisan non-profit helping young women to run for public office, lecturer and trainer for political fundraising, member of an advisory board for a sorority (mentoring college women), volunteer at local women’s shelter through the Junior League
Short-term goal: To work for a large foundation (Rockefeller) or corporate engagement office of a large company (Goldman Sachs’ 10K Women initiative)
Long-term goal: To create a social enterprise with the goal of increasing female representation at the highest levels of business, government, and nonprofit sectors
“Prefer to attend full time vs. Executive MBA to take advantage of social impact/social entrepreneurship resources”
33-year-old white female, first woman in family to attend and graduate from college

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 20%
Wharton: 20%
Columbia: 20% to 30%
Yale: 25%
Duke: 35%

Sandy’s Analysis: Your chances at Harvard, if you focused on Cambridge, are WAY better at the Kennedy School, where all your past makes sense and they may blink at the low undergraduate GPA because it was a long time ago, and your grad GPA is fine. HBS cares WAY more about undergraduate GPA because it is a better test of your ability to sit still, eat s**t, and spit it back, which is basically what you do there, with some interruptions when being called on. Anyone can ace courses they like, is the theory. Also, many Kennedy School graduates get jobs just like the ones you are seeking, so just keep that in mind.

Being a moderate Republican can help you at the K school (and a bit at HBS) since they are looking for balance. But don’t stress that beyond, of course, identifying the candidates whom you worked for–I assume they were GOP.

Given the many jobs, which are impressive and short term-ish, ad hoc, and “operative-flakey” at the same time, your GMAT could be important (also important because your GPA is low!). If you are not scoring well on practice exams there, try the GRE, which has the added advantage of being easier for some people plus it allows the school to keep a low-ish score off their GMAT average report, if they really like you but are worried about bringing down their GMAT average. Despite the math in such a calculation (e.g. how much does one, say 640 GMAT, bring down a reported school total average with 500 to 1000 other scores), adcoms don’t think that way.

And you are likable, given your non-profit work and government work.

Oddly, with a solid GMAT/GRE and some powerful recs from big feet, if that is an option, your chances at HBS are almost as good as at Wharton and Columbia, who don’t go for this profile, are not expanding their non-profit programs so much, and are more fixated on raw numbers. I could be wrong, but this is not a Wharton profile.

Yale used to focus on non-profit management but then did some turnaround and started focusing on U.S. News rankings. So while they may admit you for old time’s sake, hmmmm, don’t count on it. Might be helpful with all those schools to use your many contacts to schmooze, assuming you have your act together.

Duke runs older and is OK choice, as would be Darden.

Your best chance of getting in via DNA and a Charm Offensive is Kellogg, so start figuring out who you know there.

Hmmmm, be sure to explain your application why you are not interested in an EMBA program. That is the first question these schools will have.

All that said, really take a close look at Master’s in Public Policy programs, e.g. Kennedy School and others. That is where you belong and many grads from, e.g. Harvard Kennedy School, go into private/non–profit work.

This is from their website, and the PDF of where K schools grads got jobs for class of 2013 is pretty interesting.

For specific information about where Harvard Kennedy School graduates go, check out our current Class Employment Overview (link to pdf) and our Admissions blog, which includes stories about our Alumni.

Mr. Sales & Marketing

730 GMAT (44Q/45V)
3.8 GPA in economics and Spanish from a top liberal arts college (Bowdoin/Colgate/W&L)
Work experience includes four years at a boutique sales/marketing analytics consulting firm with 100 employees
“I have been promoted rapidly into a significant people management/client management/ project management role”
Fluent in Spanish and proficient in Portuguese, having used both extensively at work with a Fortune 50 tech firm’s branches throughout Latin America
“I don’t have significant EC’s after undergrad, although I was quite involved in college and was an Eagle Scout prior”
Goal: To broaden my skill set/acumen beyond sales and marketing, and break into a general management role at a Fortune 100 tech firm, ideally with a focus on emerging Latin American markets
26-year-old white male, originally from Idaho

Odds of Success:

Harvard: 30% to 40%
Dartmouth: 40%
Virginia: 40%+
Texas: 50%+

Sandy’s Analysis: Hmmmm, a 26-year-old white male, with solid stats: 3.8 from Sorta Little Ivy, 730 GMAT (44Q may be under 80th percentile but you were Econ major so schools will assume you can add!) and “4 years – all at a boutique sales/marketing analytics consultancy (around 100 employees)” A lot will turn on what schools think about that company and if they have familiarity with grads or other applicants. If not, it’s not the kiss of death, but make sure you describe its bona fides (size, revenue, employees –any metrics you can quote) in your resume.

Your major work there has been “working with a Fortune 50 tech firm’s branches throughout Latin America” and you fluent in Spanish and Portuguese.

You want to build out that profile and “use an MBA as a way to broaden my skill set/acumen beyond sales/marketing, and break into a general management role at a Fortune 100 tech firm, ideally with focus on emerging Latin American markets.”

That sounds solid to me, not sure you need the Latin American angle, since general managers at tech companies usually move around a lot. You might say that your dream after getting an MBA is to enter a rotational management program at a leading or innovative tech company, and look up some examples.

There is a pretty handy list of exactly these programs, broken out by industry, right here

http://www.careereducation.columbia.edu/resources/leadership-development-programs

Very useful, check it out. As the doc states:

“Leadership development and rotational programs provide you with in-depth experiences, ongoing mentorship, and targeted training across a range of business areas within a company. Companies usually use these types of programs to hire interns or post-graduates and train them through rotational programs (i.e. rotating through different parts of a company) or specific, structured training programs. The goal is to recruit and develop leaders for their organization.” Dude, sounds like you, even if you don’t go to Columbia.

Your target schools are : Harvard, Tuck, Darden, UT-Austin (McComb)

That’s a good list. You are deeply a Tuck and Darden type, and I suggest you start schmoozing with those places ASAP.

See this important article:

http://mobile.businessweek.com/articles/2014-06-24/business-school-admissions-offices-track-applicant-interest-to-improve-yield

which suggests that schools like that actually keep track of your contacts, attendance at forums, even emails!!!

You should get into UT-Austin, if you can convince them you want to go.

HBS is good reach. They might go for the solid stats and Latin American experience (stress that in resume and essay). It may turn on what they think of your job and how selective it is.

Mr. Civil Engineer

Ms. Digital Media

Ms. Politics

Handicapping Your MBA Odds–The Entire Series

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